A flat national number

The NAR Pending Home Sales Index rose 0.3% in August from July and fell 4.7% from August 2025, the association reported on September 17. The index level was 71.2.

Pending sales measure signed contracts rather than closings, which places the series roughly one to two months ahead of the existing-home sales data. A contract counted in August typically closes in September or October, and some never close at all.

NAR noted that contract signings remain approximately 30% below pre-pandemic 2019 levels — a structural gap that a 0.3% monthly change does nothing to address.

Four regions, two directions

The national figure averaged out sharply opposing regional results. The West rose 3.0% on the month but was 6.7% lower than a year earlier. The South rose 2.3% on the month and was 3.8% lower annually. The Northeast fell 4.2% on the month and 3.9% annually. The Midwest fell 1.6% on the month and 4.9% annually.

Analysis: every region was negative year over year, in a narrow band from -3.8% to -6.7%. The monthly figures diverged by more than seven percentage points. That pattern — consistent annual weakness with volatile monthly swings — is characteristic of a market where the underlying trend is uniform and the month-to-month readings are dominated by noise and local timing.

The West's 3.0% monthly gain against its 6.7% annual decline is the clearest example. It is the strongest monthly performer and the weakest annual performer simultaneously.

The rate connection

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the sluggishness to higher mortgage rates offsetting the increased buying power created by job gains and income growth outpacing home price growth.

The arithmetic behind that assessment is visible in the other data from the same month. Wage growth ran 3.1% annually and the median existing-home price rose 1.6%, so incomes did gain ground on prices. Meanwhile the 30-year fixed average reached 6.95% in the week ending September 17, against 6.26% a year earlier.

For sellers, the implication is that the pipeline entering the fall is thin and roughly flat. For buyers who can finance at current rates, contract volume 30% below 2019 describes an unusually uncrowded market.

Reading regional data responsibly

NAR's four census regions are extremely broad. The South spans Texas, Florida, Virginia and Oklahoma; the West includes both California and Montana. A regional index averages markets with little in common.

That aggregation is why the monthly regional swings should be treated cautiously. A 4.2% Northeast decline is a change in a composite covering nine states, not a description of conditions in any particular metro.

The annual figures are more robust precisely because they are more uniform. Every region fell between 3.8% and 6.7% year over year, which is a narrow enough band to describe as a national condition rather than a collection of regional stories.

The index is also benchmarked so that 100 equals the contract-signing activity of 2001. A reading of 71.2 means signings are running roughly 29% below that baseline year, which is consistent with NAR's separate statement that activity sits about 30% under pre-pandemic 2019 levels.