The data

NIC MAP data released on July 9 put senior housing occupancy across 31 primary markets at 89.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026, up 0.4 percentage points from 89.5 percent in the first quarter. It was the twentieth consecutive quarterly increase.

Occupancy reached or exceeded 90 percent in 15 of the 31 primary markets. The highest were Boston at 93.3 percent, San Francisco at 92.7 percent and Baltimore at 91.8 percent; the lowest were Miami at 86.2 percent, Atlanta at 86.5 percent and San Antonio at 87.0 percent.

Occupied units rose to 639,650 from 635,962 in the prior quarter, an increase of roughly 3,700 units. Lisa McCracken, NIC's head of research and analytics, was quoted in the release.

The supply side is the story

Year-over-year inventory growth was 0.4 percent, and fewer than 16,000 units were under construction nationally as of the second quarter. Against an occupied base of nearly 640,000 units, that construction pipeline represents under 2.5 percent of existing stock.

This is why occupancy keeps rising in a straight line. Demand growth is demographic and slow; supply growth is slower still. Twenty consecutive quarters of gains is not a demand surge, it is the arithmetic of a nearly static denominator.

By care type, independent living occupancy reached 91.3 percent, up 0.3 points, while assisted living reached 88.4 percent, up 0.4 points. The gap between them narrowed to 2.9 points, the smallest since 2014 — assisted living, which carries higher staffing costs and shorter lengths of stay, has been closing on the easier product.

Returns and caveats

Separate NIC analysis published on July 31 reported a 3.9 percent total return for senior housing in the NCREIF Property Index for the second quarter, and 8.0 percent year to date, against 1.3 percent for the broader index — a gap of 262 basis points and a seventh consecutive quarter of outperformance. Over the trailing year, senior housing returned 14.8 percent, nearly ten points above the index's 5.0 percent and ahead of the next-best property types, self-storage at 6.8 percent and retail at 6.7 percent. That figure is based on 241 senior-housing properties valued at $16.0 billion, up a net 22 properties from the prior quarter.

A separate NIC MAP Market Fundamentals report for the quarter put annual asking-rent growth for senior housing at 4.6 percent and the rolling four-quarter price per unit at $184,994, both described by NIC as near or at historic highs, alongside first-quarter 2026 senior-housing transaction volume of $5.86 billion. NIC did not disclose a cap rate figure for the quarter, marking it 'protected' in the published table.

NIC MAP is proprietary subscription data from a nonprofit industry research organisation, not a government statistical product, and its market definitions and 31-market property universe are set by NIC. A 241-property sample is also a narrow basis for a national return figure, and rising per-unit pricing alongside a return series built partly on appraisal-based valuation gains is consistent with, though it does not prove, some degree of cap-rate compression contributing to reported returns.