A double-digit monthly decline

Sales of new single-family houses ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July 2026, down 10.5% from June's 678,000 and 6.3% below the July 2025 rate of 648,000, according to the Census Bureau and HUD release published August 25.

The inventory side moved the other way. There were 488,000 new houses for sale at the end of July, 1.9% more than at the end of June. At the July sales pace that represents 9.6 months of supply, up from 8.5 months a month earlier — a 12.9% jump in a single month.

Months of supply is a ratio, so it can rise either because inventory grew or because sales fell. In July both happened at once, which is why the increase was so large. The measure is not directly comparable to the existing-home months-supply figure, because new-home inventory includes units not yet started or under construction.

Prices moved in opposite directions

The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $393,800, down 2.3% from June's $403,100. The average sales price went the other way, rising 4.1% to $508,800.

That divergence is a mix effect rather than a contradiction. The median describes the midpoint transaction, while the average is pulled by the tails. When the middle of the market softens and a handful of high-priced closings still complete, the two measures can separate. It is a reminder that a single price statistic rarely describes a whole market.

Why a 9.6-month overhang matters

Analysis: a supply reading near ten months is the clearest pressure point in the current new-home market. Builders carry the financing cost of standing inventory, which is why discounting and incentive programs tend to intensify when this ratio climbs rather than when prices alone weaken.

That pressure is visible in builder sentiment data from the same period. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for September reported that 38% of builders cut prices and 66% used sales incentives, both up from August — behavior consistent with an inventory problem rather than a pricing preference.

Two caveats apply. Census new-home sales figures carry large sampling variability and are frequently revised, so the 10.5% monthly drop should be read as directional. And the August release covering the following month was scheduled for September 24, after this article's publication, so the July reading is the most recent verified data point in the series.

How new-home supply differs from existing-home supply

The 9.6-month figure invites comparison with the 4.9 months of existing-home supply NAR reported for August, but the two are not measuring comparable things.

Census counts a new house in the for-sale inventory once it is being offered for sale, which can happen before the ground is broken — not automatically at the moment a permit is issued. The release breaks the 488,000 units into three stages of construction: 115,000 not started, 256,000 under construction and 117,000 completed. Only that last group is standing, finished and immediately available. Existing-home inventory, by contrast, consists almost entirely of completed, occupiable houses.

That composition difference means new-home months-supply is structurally higher than the existing-home figure. The signal sits in the change rather than the level — though Census puts a ±21.3 percent interval around the 12.9% monthly rise in months' supply, so even that movement is not statistically significant on its own. What is significant is the 1.9% (±1.2 percent) monthly rise in the for-sale count itself.

For a buyer, the practical consequence is that the 117,000 completed unsold homes are the part of builder inventory carrying the most holding cost, and they are the units where discounting is most likely to appear.