A turn in the series

CBRE's second-quarter 2026 industrial and logistics report, dated July 29, put national industrial vacancy at 6.5%, down 20 basis points from the first quarter. By the firm's count it was the first quarterly decline since the second quarter of 2022.

Leasing activity reached 268.7 million square feet in the quarter, 11% higher than a year earlier, bringing the first-half total to 547.9 million square feet, up 18%. Large transactions drove much of that: leases of at least 700,000 square feet rose 125% year over year in the first half, and 38 leases of a million square feet or more were signed, more than double the first half of 2025.

Manufacturers accounted for more than 12% of total leasing volume, a share that separates this cycle's demand from the purely distribution-led leasing of the early 2020s.

The second count

Cushman & Wakefield's MarketBeat for the same quarter reported national vacancy at 6.9%, down 10 basis points. Net absorption was 62.1 million square feet, 21% above the prior quarter, with 113.6 million square feet absorbed year to date — the firm's strongest first half since 2023.

On a four-quarter rolling basis, Cushman put absorption at 236 million square feet, 17.3% above the 201 million square foot average of 2023 through 2025. The construction pipeline had risen 18% off its cyclical bottom and crossed 300 million square feet for the first time in two years.

Newer buildings are taking the demand. Of the 137 million square feet absorbed year to date in warehouses built since 2020, 62.4 million square feet was in large-format facilities of 500,000 square feet or more.

Why the two numbers differ

A 40 basis point gap between two national vacancy rates for the same quarter is not an error by either firm. Brokerage market data is built from each firm's own inventory universe — which buildings, of what size, in which metropolitan areas, count as stock — and those definitions are not standardized.

The consequence for readers is straightforward: there is no single authoritative national industrial vacancy rate. The direction both firms report is the same, and the direction is the part that can be compared. The level cannot be, and citing 6.5% and 6.9% as though one refuted the other would be a misuse of both.

Neither retrieved report provided a confirmed national asking rent figure for the quarter, so rent direction is not reported here.

What a supply-side turn looks like

Analysis: vacancy is a ratio, and it can fall because demand rises or because new supply stops arriving. The evidence here points to both acting at once — leasing up double digits year over year, while a construction pipeline that had been shrinking for two years only now turns back up.

The lag matters for what comes next. Warehouse projects starting in mid-2026 deliver in 2027 and 2028. A pipeline rising 18% off the bottom today is the beginning of the next supply wave, not a constraint on it, and if demand plateaus before those buildings open the vacancy trend can reverse again.

For occupiers, the immediate implication is narrower choice in the large-format newer stock where absorption is concentrated, and continued availability in older buildings. For owners, one quarter is a data point and not yet a trend.