The supply wave is receding
Annual apartment supply for the year ending in the second quarter of 2026 totaled roughly 340,200 units, according to RealPage Market Analytics' quarterly data update published July 6. That was the sixth consecutive quarter of declining annual supply, down from a peak near 588,000 units in late 2024.
Second-quarter deliveries alone came to about 77,700 units. Demand over the same twelve months ran at roughly 271,300 units absorbed — a figure below the decade average of about 340,000, but one measured against a supply total that is falling faster.
Quarterly absorption was stronger than the annual figure implies. More than 187,000 units were absorbed in the second quarter itself, a heavy number for the season and the clearest evidence in the release that demand had not weakened alongside the slowdown in construction.
Occupancy and rent
Occupancy stood at 95.5% in the second quarter, up for a second straight quarter but still 20 basis points below the same quarter of 2025. Effective asking rents rose 1.4% from the first quarter while remaining 0.2% lower than a year earlier.
The concession data explain part of that gap. Concessions were offered on 24.6% of units, at an average value of 7.6% — roughly a month of free rent on an annual lease. Effective rents are measured net of those discounts, which is why the quarter-over-quarter gain coexists with a negative annual figure.
RealPage's August update, published September 3, showed the annual comparison turning positive: same-store effective asking rents rose 0.9% year over year in August and 0.1% on the month, the eighth consecutive monthly gain of 2026. Occupancy held at 95.5%, flat on the month and the year but 90 basis points higher than at the start of the year.
Why the sequence matters
Analysis: the order of events here is the substance. Supply peaked in late 2024, demand stayed near its long-run range, and rents bottomed roughly eighteen months after deliveries did. That lag is what a construction cycle looks like working through a rental market.
The first-quarter update, published April 6, marks the turn. Absorption of about 93,300 units was the strongest first quarter in a decade, yet occupancy was 94.9% and rents were 0.5% below a year earlier, with concessions on 25.5% of units. By August the concession share and the annual rent comparison had both improved.
For renters, the implication is that the period of maximum bargaining power has likely passed in most markets. For owners, it is that the pricing recovery is arriving through occupancy and reduced discounting before it appears in headline asking rents.
Reading proprietary rent data
These figures come from a commercial analytics database of professionally managed properties, not from a government survey. They are same-store and effective — measured on the same set of units over time and net of concessions.
That construction makes them non-comparable with several other widely cited series. Asking-rent trackers built on new-lease listings capture a different population, and the shelter component of the Consumer Price Index measures rent actually paid across all leases including renewals, which is why it moves later and more smoothly than any of them.
The three can disagree in a given month without either being wrong. Where they agree — as they broadly do on the direction of 2026, a soft start followed by gradual firming — the signal is stronger than any single series would justify on its own.